The reason older people are not leaving the labor market is because they have not saved enough for retirement in the 401ks that replaced the pensions which employers dumped, and a rising cost of living vs fixed income. They are not staying in for the love of the job.
This is a solid reminder that “AI ate the entry level” is an incomplete story. But the “learn to weld” punchline lands a little too clean.
Two things feel under-modeled here:
1. The 50+ problem. When older workers stay in-role longer, that is not just stubbornness. It is also age bias, re-hiring friction, health insurance math, and the very real “I tried to switch and the market politely ghosted me” reality. The off-ramp is sticky for reasons that have nothing to do with vibes or virtue.
2. The welding leap. Yes, demand for trades is real, and yes, infra buildouts are real. But welding is not a motivational poster. It is training time, apprenticeship pipelines, geography, physical wear, and a decision that changes your body and your life. The job market does not magically become welcoming because you bought a helmet.
Curious what you’d say is the practical bridge here: if we believe the on-ramp is backed up, what is the fastest policy or employer behavior shift that actually unblocks it without turning “just become a welder” into the new “just learn to code”?
Maybe if we had healthcare for all - like all other countries, we would have more jobs (many more small businesses could afford to open and hire since they don't have to pay for healthcare) and people would retire earlier and be healthier ( because they can and don't work themselves to the bone to afford health insurance).
To be fair, with respect to bullet #4, utilization does not = depreciation. The former refers to physical utility while the latter refers to GAPP accounting. The 5+ year depreciation schedules used by the hyperscalers implies the residual value of a 2.75yr old fully utilized chip is 50% of the original cost. Given the extraordinary innovation that contributes to each successive generation of chip being many times more productive and many times less energy intensive than it's predecessors, I suspect the residual value of that fully utilized 2.75yr old chip is well below 50% of original cost. If accurate, then the depreciation schedules for a number of my favorite companies are indeed too long and should return to where they were just a few years ago.
Tell us how to get into industrial construction as a young person in America, if you like tell me so I can tell them, no I won’t monetize the advice. Not a cent with a gun at my head.
I’m 59 and basically set, but the young men need to know.
The reason older people are not leaving the labor market is because they have not saved enough for retirement in the 401ks that replaced the pensions which employers dumped, and a rising cost of living vs fixed income. They are not staying in for the love of the job.
This is very true
131.47? how about you label your charts axes
Clearly a miseducation problem if simultaneously the workforce is aging, we need more workers, and unemployment rising
This is a solid reminder that “AI ate the entry level” is an incomplete story. But the “learn to weld” punchline lands a little too clean.
Two things feel under-modeled here:
1. The 50+ problem. When older workers stay in-role longer, that is not just stubbornness. It is also age bias, re-hiring friction, health insurance math, and the very real “I tried to switch and the market politely ghosted me” reality. The off-ramp is sticky for reasons that have nothing to do with vibes or virtue.
2. The welding leap. Yes, demand for trades is real, and yes, infra buildouts are real. But welding is not a motivational poster. It is training time, apprenticeship pipelines, geography, physical wear, and a decision that changes your body and your life. The job market does not magically become welcoming because you bought a helmet.
Curious what you’d say is the practical bridge here: if we believe the on-ramp is backed up, what is the fastest policy or employer behavior shift that actually unblocks it without turning “just become a welder” into the new “just learn to code”?
Maybe if we had healthcare for all - like all other countries, we would have more jobs (many more small businesses could afford to open and hire since they don't have to pay for healthcare) and people would retire earlier and be healthier ( because they can and don't work themselves to the bone to afford health insurance).
To be fair, with respect to bullet #4, utilization does not = depreciation. The former refers to physical utility while the latter refers to GAPP accounting. The 5+ year depreciation schedules used by the hyperscalers implies the residual value of a 2.75yr old fully utilized chip is 50% of the original cost. Given the extraordinary innovation that contributes to each successive generation of chip being many times more productive and many times less energy intensive than it's predecessors, I suspect the residual value of that fully utilized 2.75yr old chip is well below 50% of original cost. If accurate, then the depreciation schedules for a number of my favorite companies are indeed too long and should return to where they were just a few years ago.
The informed kindly review 🤖
INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION — CERT ENTRY CARD (UNIX CUT)
MISSION:
Be employable on an industrial job site in ≤ 30 days.
---
[STEP 1 — BASELINE]
OSHA 10 (Construction)
- 10 hrs online
- Required everywhere
---
[STEP 2 — APPLY NOW]
Do NOT wait for more certs
- Apply union + non-union
- Walk into job sites
---
[STEP 3 — ACCESS]
TWIC Card (if coastal / plants)
- Refineries / ports / LNG
- Start immediately (takes weeks)
---
[STEP 4 — UTILITY]
First Aid / CPR
- 1 day
- Makes you useful Day 1
---
[STEP 5 — ONCE HIRED]
OSHA 30
NCCER (pick trade: electrical / weld / pipe)
---
[STEP 6 — SEPARATE YOURSELF]
Confined Space
HAZWOPER 40
Forklift / Telehandler
---
PRIORITY ORDER:
1. OSHA 10
2. APPLY
3. TWIC
4. First Aid
5. WORK
6. OSHA 30 + NCCER
---
DO NOT:
- Wait for perfect
- Go into debt for school
- Collect useless certs
---
RULE:
“Get OSHA 10 → get hired → everything else stacks while paid.”
---
INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION — 30 SECOND SCRIPT (UNIX CUT)
READ THIS OUT LOUD:
“Go get OSHA 10 this week—online, done in a day or two.
While you’re doing that, start applying everywhere—unions, contractors, walk into job sites.
If you’re near plants or water, apply for a TWIC card immediately—it takes time but opens doors.
Grab basic First Aid and CPR so you’re useful on day one.
Do not wait for perfect. Take the first job you can get.
Once you’re working, stack OSHA 30 and pick a trade—electrical, welding, or pipe.
After that, add confined space or equipment certs and move up.
Show up early, stay sober, do what you’re told—and you’ll be ahead of most people.
That’s it. Get in, get paid, level up while working.”
Tell us how to get into industrial construction as a young person in America, if you like tell me so I can tell them, no I won’t monetize the advice. Not a cent with a gun at my head.
I’m 59 and basically set, but the young men need to know.
We all need them to know.
Thank you.
Yes I will also ask chat 🤖