I don’t understand how facebook’s muse maintains market share in the face of iOS and Android. Sure Facebook has data on me but nothing like Apple and Google Android. What muse does seems an obvious concept to embed in Siri and Gemini. Why is muse relevant except as a first mover?
Apple and Google have monetization methods beyond Facebook. The question is whether social media and messaging remains the same in the AI age. That’s open. No one has created AI that would displace social media at this point.
Amazon, DoorDash and Instacarts value is less in being an aggregator and more about them implementing delivery. Yelp and Google biz is dominant in local food and is used by AI to train itself. DoorDash et al are gotos if I’m looking for delivery. Amazon the same.
I tend to look at who has a sustained differential advantage (aka a moat).
How ads and memberships (ala doordash and amazon) play out is also interesting.
I own cookie shops. All but Amazon are relevant for buying. Should I support muse? See no reason not too. I’m comfortable in letting the elephants battle it out because none of them changes my sustained competitive advantage.
I mostly think about how AI is trained to displace Yelp and Google business in recommendations locally. Also how AI is trained to find me for national deliveries.
But a very interesting analysis of the elephants playing for dominance.
This was a good read, thoughtful and comprehensive. It brought a few thoughts to mind:
1. Might there be a regulatory component to this at some point? Like how car dealers have leveraged franchise laws in the US to prevent direct-to-consumer sales, but in reverse?
2. AI shopping will make accurately measuring net-new customers (via their agents) crucial (i.e., to capture the operating income-ad revenue tradeoff you astutely observed.
3. Wouldn't advertisers pay less to advertise on sites like Amazon if more traffic is coming via agents? So there might be a one-two punch to decreasing ad revenue from intercepted orders.
Really well reasoned and explored. Thank you for sharing these thoughts.
An agent can become the intent layer surprisingly quickly, but transaction trust is much harder to move.
Travel is a particularly good example: Muse may decide what I should book, while Booking , Expedia Airbnb can still capture the transaction because that’s where I’m more comfortable completing the purchase.
I trust Brian Chesky is cooking something here too…
Great article. Number of thoughts,
I don’t understand how facebook’s muse maintains market share in the face of iOS and Android. Sure Facebook has data on me but nothing like Apple and Google Android. What muse does seems an obvious concept to embed in Siri and Gemini. Why is muse relevant except as a first mover?
Apple and Google have monetization methods beyond Facebook. The question is whether social media and messaging remains the same in the AI age. That’s open. No one has created AI that would displace social media at this point.
Amazon, DoorDash and Instacarts value is less in being an aggregator and more about them implementing delivery. Yelp and Google biz is dominant in local food and is used by AI to train itself. DoorDash et al are gotos if I’m looking for delivery. Amazon the same.
I tend to look at who has a sustained differential advantage (aka a moat).
How ads and memberships (ala doordash and amazon) play out is also interesting.
I own cookie shops. All but Amazon are relevant for buying. Should I support muse? See no reason not too. I’m comfortable in letting the elephants battle it out because none of them changes my sustained competitive advantage.
I mostly think about how AI is trained to displace Yelp and Google business in recommendations locally. Also how AI is trained to find me for national deliveries.
But a very interesting analysis of the elephants playing for dominance.
This was a good read, thoughtful and comprehensive. It brought a few thoughts to mind:
1. Might there be a regulatory component to this at some point? Like how car dealers have leveraged franchise laws in the US to prevent direct-to-consumer sales, but in reverse?
2. AI shopping will make accurately measuring net-new customers (via their agents) crucial (i.e., to capture the operating income-ad revenue tradeoff you astutely observed.
3. Wouldn't advertisers pay less to advertise on sites like Amazon if more traffic is coming via agents? So there might be a one-two punch to decreasing ad revenue from intercepted orders.
Really well reasoned and explored. Thank you for sharing these thoughts.
An agent can become the intent layer surprisingly quickly, but transaction trust is much harder to move.
Travel is a particularly good example: Muse may decide what I should book, while Booking , Expedia Airbnb can still capture the transaction because that’s where I’m more comfortable completing the purchase.
I trust Brian Chesky is cooking something here too…