Manufacturing becomes an asset class the day the state stops being a customer and starts being an underwriter: equity stakes, offtakes, production act authority, priced floors. Returns anchored to policy rather than demand cycles are a different animal, closer to infrastructure than industry. The open question is the one every regulated asset class eventually answers: what the underwriter asks for in return.
"With Anduril’s Ghost-X program, suppliers needed roughly six months to add capacity, but the Army couldn’t commit to how many systems it would buy, forcing Anduril and its suppliers to weigh scaling costs against uncertain demand. And this is now extending into the multibillion-dollar CCA program, where Anduril says it has reached the limit of what private capital can carry and cannot begin FQ-44 Fury production without the Air Force’s $1.1 billion FY27 procurement request being funded. Sellers need buyer dollars. Not exactly a crazy proposition."
You would think Hegseth and The Pentagon could figure out a way to get that $1.1 billion to Anduril by robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Bravo! This is precient, well-reasoned and a timely wake-up call long overdue. Our Ukranian friends are besting America and showing the way. Some interesting parallels to Jon McNeill's precepts in his excellent new book, "Algorithm."
Manufacturing becomes an asset class the day the state stops being a customer and starts being an underwriter: equity stakes, offtakes, production act authority, priced floors. Returns anchored to policy rather than demand cycles are a different animal, closer to infrastructure than industry. The open question is the one every regulated asset class eventually answers: what the underwriter asks for in return.
these five aren't equally far along though. which one actually has an american line running at volume today, not just a groundbreaking?
"With Anduril’s Ghost-X program, suppliers needed roughly six months to add capacity, but the Army couldn’t commit to how many systems it would buy, forcing Anduril and its suppliers to weigh scaling costs against uncertain demand. And this is now extending into the multibillion-dollar CCA program, where Anduril says it has reached the limit of what private capital can carry and cannot begin FQ-44 Fury production without the Air Force’s $1.1 billion FY27 procurement request being funded. Sellers need buyer dollars. Not exactly a crazy proposition."
You would think Hegseth and The Pentagon could figure out a way to get that $1.1 billion to Anduril by robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Bravo! This is precient, well-reasoned and a timely wake-up call long overdue. Our Ukranian friends are besting America and showing the way. Some interesting parallels to Jon McNeill's precepts in his excellent new book, "Algorithm."