The market can make simple ideas feel complicated, but going back to the fundamentals often brings the clearest perspective. Patience and a well-defined process matter more than reacting to every move. 👏
76% of S&P earnings growth coming from tech is a wild stat. Do the charts show how much of the capex is now debt-funded versus paid out of free cash flow?
The A100 point is the strongest in the deck for me. That chip launched in May 2020, so a six-year-old generation renting at or above January levels is a lot of support for the 5 to 6 year depreciation lives the hyperscalers use.
69 percent of the S&P 500 report a live AI deployment. 2 percent track a metric. The same shape shows up one machine at a time. In Professor Ryuichi Hayashi's archive of 295 documented robot projects, seven plants installed the same two-armed robot. Their reported productivity gains ran from 1.1 times to 8 times. One robot model, a spread of seven times, and the pages seldom say why. My candidate, presented at the robot-economics conference in Kiel on Monday, is set after the purchase by people in the plant: what the robot is allowed to do on its own. No survey I have found records it. The variable sits around the machine.
Really interesting perspective. The market is changing so quickly that understanding the bigger picture matters just as much as following individual investments.
The more you learn, the better you can spot opportunities without getting caught up in the noise. 📈
lol tech 4x'd the rest of the S&P in the past 5 years
incredible report, great insights particulay on fcf and saas
The market can make simple ideas feel complicated, but going back to the fundamentals often brings the clearest perspective. Patience and a well-defined process matter more than reacting to every move. 👏
Superb report!
76% of S&P earnings growth coming from tech is a wild stat. Do the charts show how much of the capex is now debt-funded versus paid out of free cash flow?
The A100 point is the strongest in the deck for me. That chip launched in May 2020, so a six-year-old generation renting at or above January levels is a lot of support for the 5 to 6 year depreciation lives the hyperscalers use.
69 percent of the S&P 500 report a live AI deployment. 2 percent track a metric. The same shape shows up one machine at a time. In Professor Ryuichi Hayashi's archive of 295 documented robot projects, seven plants installed the same two-armed robot. Their reported productivity gains ran from 1.1 times to 8 times. One robot model, a spread of seven times, and the pages seldom say why. My candidate, presented at the robot-economics conference in Kiel on Monday, is set after the purchase by people in the plant: what the robot is allowed to do on its own. No survey I have found records it. The variable sits around the machine.
Paper: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22914274
How much of the software profit improvement came from cutting costs? I'm curious whether customers are spending more too.
Incredible resource - thank you for making this available!
Really interesting perspective. The market is changing so quickly that understanding the bigger picture matters just as much as following individual investments.
The more you learn, the better you can spot opportunities without getting caught up in the noise. 📈