Just read this afternoon, thanks for sharing. I am less versed in the history of this landscape so thanks for sharing that primer for understanding our culture wars.
Thanks David. What makes this complex is that there is (approximately speaking here) a thermodynamic layer, a productive / economic layer, a cultural layer and a political layer. Perturbations across these layers keep creating instability in the other layers. Very few people study all of the layers at once, becuase when they are relatively stable they don’t have to.
I thought the power dynamic framing helped make it understandable regardless of the methods or reasoning. Seems like gov. control system is relatively stable in it's power-seeking dynamic relative to the social layer. Will be curious how you overlap this "prediction" concept within your work and views. I come in from more of the internet native finance viewpoint, where you can participate without necessary social allegiances. In some ways anonymity or pseudonymity could even be the norm or preferable in that layer.
To add to that, I find the anonymous/pseudonymous aspect of social finance a fascinating breakthrough maybe precisely because you can grow some aspect of power and influence without any specific in-group status seeking?
I think about post-postmodernism often, but in the form of Metamodernism. Hearing your take on post-postmodernism as Predictionism was fascinating. I think we disagree on a few points:
Metamodernism is more humanist, and asks how we can feel authentically in a world of simulations. It seems like Predictionism is asking how we can act effectively. Your ethics are Bayesian, not existential. Your values are accuracy, not beauty.
I think Metamodernism looks to heal from the horrors of Modernism and Postmodernism. Predictionism wants to supersede it. Reconciliation vs optimization. Interiority rediscovered vs exteriority rendered legible.
I'm not sure if you're transcending Postmodernism as much as doubling down on Modernism, and preaching HyperModernity in the process. The self-awareness and cautionism baked into Postmodernism is kinda ignored here, and there seems to be a cut-the-breaks-and-the-seatbelt approach to technology. Maybe? Or is that the Postmodernist in me speaking here?
I'm not sure at all, by the way. I loved this article, and you make a very persuasive argument, and I could just be overly nostalgic. I just haven't heard of Post-postmodernism described your way before, as much as I've heard Metamodernism preached by Hanzi Freinacht, Vermeulen, and Dempsey. Maybe our views aren't as divergent as I'm believing them to be.
Freinds used a live studio audience and there were multiple takes with changes in delivery based on audience reaction. So the real laughs/reactions were and important part of creating the shows. The reactions were integral to the product
I'd recommend you spend time deep diving into the rise of the integrative worldview, which has already been scientifically mapped as the successor to the three previous worldviews (traditional, modern and postmodern). It will give you a far more robust frame to see not only how and why postmodernism rose and what its inherent limits are, but what will be required ontologically to transcend it. Prediction is not it. As a relatively flat concept of interobjective systems behavior, it has little inherent meaning to the human interactants beyond the actual meaning of the semiotic referents to which it points (i.e., 49ers, Chiefs etc.), and doesn't get close to what we know about actual sources of human meaning, which largely situate either in creative acts or in service to values-activities larger than ourselves.
This is a fantastic framing! If prediction contracts are the new patents, the unit that organizes our ambition and captures value, what happens to the people who are perpetually predicted by the game? Patents fostered a class of inventors; what class of "information contributors" will prediction markets create, and what will the "back end" of the Prediction era look like for those who aren't the ones making the successful calls?
Prediction is not a new movement, it's just post-modernism discovering it can monetise its own anxiety. Obama was not the last post-modern president. Trump is the first fully post-modern president. We've lived in post-modernism cushioned by modernism's material abundance, but that is rapidly deteriorating because we've forgotten how to build. Welcome to the century of austere postmodernism.
I'm curious if a game where you try to predict the behavior of a bunch of other players who are also trying to predict your behavior trends towards truth and order over the long run, though. The endless dynamism is what makes it fun.
To keep people hooked over time, you slap on a "progression system." The real trick in resolving people's nihilism will be to design mechanisms that allow them to contribute to meaningful goals back on the base layer of reality by engaging with prediction markets in the day-to-day fashionable memecoin sense.
In the same vein, I can see information edges becoming rarer and harder to find. If the Oakland A’s 2002 “Moneyball” season was about an informational edge (teams undervaluing on-base percentage), the new edges will come from execution.
Poker followed the same arc: at first it was an edge just to know what GTO was; now everyone knows, and the advantage is in how you execute or when you deviate. The same pattern applies to stocks and the NFL draft — informational asymmetry gives way to behavioral and execution asymmetry.
I’m still skeptical, though, that people placing bets on Polymarket or DraftKings as their main contribution to society is the ideal end state.
Interesting. I wrote about this a few weeks ago positing three primary philosophical groupings interacting. I used different terminology but there are many overlaps with your argument. https://substack.com/@theliminallens/note/p-173766916?r=dvftt&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Will read! Thanks for sending along
My culture map towards the end is still WIP so if you have any thoughts on it I’d love to hear it.
Just read this afternoon, thanks for sharing. I am less versed in the history of this landscape so thanks for sharing that primer for understanding our culture wars.
Thanks David. What makes this complex is that there is (approximately speaking here) a thermodynamic layer, a productive / economic layer, a cultural layer and a political layer. Perturbations across these layers keep creating instability in the other layers. Very few people study all of the layers at once, becuase when they are relatively stable they don’t have to.
I thought the power dynamic framing helped make it understandable regardless of the methods or reasoning. Seems like gov. control system is relatively stable in it's power-seeking dynamic relative to the social layer. Will be curious how you overlap this "prediction" concept within your work and views. I come in from more of the internet native finance viewpoint, where you can participate without necessary social allegiances. In some ways anonymity or pseudonymity could even be the norm or preferable in that layer.
To add to that, I find the anonymous/pseudonymous aspect of social finance a fascinating breakthrough maybe precisely because you can grow some aspect of power and influence without any specific in-group status seeking?
I wrote a skeptical piece on the current approach to social currency. I tend to agree that the concept overall is promising but I don’t believe the current incarnations are optimal. https://open.substack.com/pub/theliminallens/p/crypto-decentralization-belief-engine?r=dvftt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
I think about post-postmodernism often, but in the form of Metamodernism. Hearing your take on post-postmodernism as Predictionism was fascinating. I think we disagree on a few points:
Metamodernism is more humanist, and asks how we can feel authentically in a world of simulations. It seems like Predictionism is asking how we can act effectively. Your ethics are Bayesian, not existential. Your values are accuracy, not beauty.
I think Metamodernism looks to heal from the horrors of Modernism and Postmodernism. Predictionism wants to supersede it. Reconciliation vs optimization. Interiority rediscovered vs exteriority rendered legible.
I'm not sure if you're transcending Postmodernism as much as doubling down on Modernism, and preaching HyperModernity in the process. The self-awareness and cautionism baked into Postmodernism is kinda ignored here, and there seems to be a cut-the-breaks-and-the-seatbelt approach to technology. Maybe? Or is that the Postmodernist in me speaking here?
I'm not sure at all, by the way. I loved this article, and you make a very persuasive argument, and I could just be overly nostalgic. I just haven't heard of Post-postmodernism described your way before, as much as I've heard Metamodernism preached by Hanzi Freinacht, Vermeulen, and Dempsey. Maybe our views aren't as divergent as I'm believing them to be.
Freinds used a live studio audience and there were multiple takes with changes in delivery based on audience reaction. So the real laughs/reactions were and important part of creating the shows. The reactions were integral to the product
They optimized for the greatest audience impact.. because they couldn't predict.
Welcome
Ye shall discover that Carnegie was so right when he said it doesn’t pay to innovate…
the second mouse gets the cheese.
The innovator loses his head …
Beware.
This is an abuse of the word postmodernism
I'd recommend you spend time deep diving into the rise of the integrative worldview, which has already been scientifically mapped as the successor to the three previous worldviews (traditional, modern and postmodern). It will give you a far more robust frame to see not only how and why postmodernism rose and what its inherent limits are, but what will be required ontologically to transcend it. Prediction is not it. As a relatively flat concept of interobjective systems behavior, it has little inherent meaning to the human interactants beyond the actual meaning of the semiotic referents to which it points (i.e., 49ers, Chiefs etc.), and doesn't get close to what we know about actual sources of human meaning, which largely situate either in creative acts or in service to values-activities larger than ourselves.
This is a fantastic framing! If prediction contracts are the new patents, the unit that organizes our ambition and captures value, what happens to the people who are perpetually predicted by the game? Patents fostered a class of inventors; what class of "information contributors" will prediction markets create, and what will the "back end" of the Prediction era look like for those who aren't the ones making the successful calls?
Prediction is not a new movement, it's just post-modernism discovering it can monetise its own anxiety. Obama was not the last post-modern president. Trump is the first fully post-modern president. We've lived in post-modernism cushioned by modernism's material abundance, but that is rapidly deteriorating because we've forgotten how to build. Welcome to the century of austere postmodernism.
I'm curious if a game where you try to predict the behavior of a bunch of other players who are also trying to predict your behavior trends towards truth and order over the long run, though. The endless dynamism is what makes it fun.
To keep people hooked over time, you slap on a "progression system." The real trick in resolving people's nihilism will be to design mechanisms that allow them to contribute to meaningful goals back on the base layer of reality by engaging with prediction markets in the day-to-day fashionable memecoin sense.
Prediction markets are a kind of self-fulfilling prophecies and completely zeitgeist of post-truth era. So be careful!
If I understand your article correctly, another name for the successor to Postmodernism could be 'Programmed'?
“defining art like Glenn Gould’s Goldberg Variations”
Uhh, you might want to look up the authorship on that one, chief.
I will never forgive Venkatesh Rao for convincing dumbass MBAs that they can write
What a wonderful read. Alex, I tried to provide the underlying philosophical and metaphysical movement to what you're saying here: https://open.substack.com/pub/ryandavidmullins/p/prediction-after-postmodernism-a?r=amgr&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Your piece was a joy to read and prompted a number of responses from me. I will indeed publish more in the coming days/weeks.
In the same vein, I can see information edges becoming rarer and harder to find. If the Oakland A’s 2002 “Moneyball” season was about an informational edge (teams undervaluing on-base percentage), the new edges will come from execution.
Poker followed the same arc: at first it was an edge just to know what GTO was; now everyone knows, and the advantage is in how you execute or when you deviate. The same pattern applies to stocks and the NFL draft — informational asymmetry gives way to behavioral and execution asymmetry.
I’m still skeptical, though, that people placing bets on Polymarket or DraftKings as their main contribution to society is the ideal end state.